Japanese Equities Surge as Oil Falls on Middle East Optimism

Japanese stocks surged on AI enthusiasm

01/06/2026
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Japanese stocks surged on AI enthusiasm

Japanese equities were particularly buoyant last week, supported by a combination of ongoing enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) and a sharp decline in oil prices. Shares in SoftBank, a major investor in a number of prominent AI‑focused businesses including OpenAI (the creator of ChatGPT), have performed strongly in recent weeks, helping propel the company to become Japan’s largest by market capitalisation and providing a meaningful lift to the broader market. Against this backdrop, the Nikkei 225 rose +4.7% (in yen terms) over the week, taking its year-to-date total return above +31.0%. Additional support came from the energy complex, with Brent crude falling 9.6% to $93.77 a barrel on renewed optimism around a potential agreement between the US and Iran, raising the prospect of resumed transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Given Japan’s heavy reliance on imported energy, lower oil prices remain a meaningful tailwind for the domestic economy and equity market.

US equities continued to grind higher in what was a holiday‑shortened week due to the Memorial Day break. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose +1.4% and +2.4% respectively (in dollar terms), with AI‑related stocks once again leading the advance as investor enthusiasm around the theme showed little sign of fading. Sentiment was further boosted by news that Anthropic raised $65.0bn in fresh funding, implying a valuation just shy of $1.0tn¹, with both Anthropic and OpenAI increasingly viewed as potential IPO candidates later this year, reinforcing the scale of capital flowing into the space. Elsewhere, European markets were more subdued. The MSCI Europe ex‑UK index edged +0.4% higher (in euros), while in the UK the FTSE 100 declined -0.5% in another shortened week, partly reflecting a lack of positive catalysts. In China, the Shanghai Composite fell -1.1% (in renminbi), with sentiment weighed by regulatory tightening following the CSRC’s crackdown on offshore brokerages serving mainland investors².

As noted previously, oil prices came under significant pressure last week, with Brent crude recording its largest weekly decline in two months, falling by close to -10.0%. The move was driven by media reports suggesting the US and Iran were nearing an agreement to extend their existing ceasefire, raising the prospect that transit through the Strait of Hormuz could resume. That said, no formal deal has yet been reached, and reports of fresh military attacks by both sides over the weekend underline the fragility of the situation. Elsewhere in commodities, gold prices moved higher, with the precious metal rising +1.8% to $4,591 an ounce, those gains in part reflecting optimism around the US-Iran peace deal.

 

CountryPeriodActualForecastPrevious
UKN/A----
USDurable Goods Orders MoMApril7.90%3.50%0.80%
GDP QoQ Second Estimate QoQQ1'251.60%2.00%2.00%
EuropeN/A----
ChinaN/A----
JapanIndustrial Production YoYApril2.30%-0.60%
Retail Sales YoYApril2.10%1.30%1.70%
Unemployment RateApril2.50%2.70%2.70%
Source: Workspace DataStream

 

¹ Anthropic – Series H Funding Announcement, www.anthropic.com/news/series-h, 28/05/2026
² T. Rowe Price – Global Markets Weekly Update, 29/05/2026

 

SJP Approved: 01/06/2026

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