In Global equities closed substantially higher for the second week in a row ahead of deescalation talks between the US and Iran this weekend in Islamabad. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell $13.50 to $98.50, whilst Brent crude closed the week below $95 after a similar fall.
The US and Iran reached a very tentative two-week ceasefire with just hours to go before a threatened US attack on Iran’s domestic infrastructure. With talks scheduled for Saturday, April 11th in Pakistan. However, amid a dispute over whether Lebanon is covered by the terms of the ceasefire, Israel’s continued attacks on Hezbollah left the ceasefire on shaky ground.
Also crucial among the terms of the ceasefire was the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, however only a small number of ships were permitted to exit the Persian Gulf late last week, with Iran reportedly charging tolls. On Wednesday, President Trump threatened to raise tariffs to 50% on any country that exports weapons to Iran.
Whilst China and Pakistan were reportedly instrumental in bringing Iran to the negotiating table, the conflict in the Middle East has sharpened divisions within NATO. Spain and France have refused to allow the US to use its bases and airspace in those countries to support operations in the Middle East.
All major equity indices rallied over the week, most in excess of 3% in local currency. The S&P 500 closed 3.6% higher in Dollar terms during the week. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note declined from 4.33% before Easter weekend to 4.31% at Friday’s close.
| Day | Country | Measure | Period | Forecast | Previous |
| Monday | US | Existing Home Sales | March | 4.05m | 4.09m |
| Tuesday | China | Exports YoY | March | 8.6% | 39.6% |
| China | Imports YoY | March | 13.9% | 13.8% | |
| Wednesday | N/A | ||||
| Thursday | China | GDP YoY | Q1 | 4.8% | 4.5% |
| China | Retail Sales YoY | March | 2.4% | 2.8% | |
| China | Industrial Production YoY | March | 5.3% | 6.3% | |
| UK | Monthly GDP MoM | February | 0.10% | 0.00% | |
| Europe | Consumer Price Index YoY | March | 2.50% | 2.50% | |
| US | Initial Jobless Claims | Weekly | 214k | 219k | |
| Friday | N/A | ||||
| Source: Bloomberg | |||||
SJP Approved: 13/04/2026
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