Dollar Rallies As US Job Creation Accelerates


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Dollar Rallies As US Job Creation Accelerates

The US Dollar continued to push higher last week on further signs of improving conditions in Automatic Data Processing Inc and overall non-farm payroll growth exceeded expectations during June whilst the pace of wage growth also accelerated[1]. Subsequently, the Dollar rose against all of its major counterparts with Sterling falling by -0.94% to $1.378 and the Euro by -0.9% to $1.184. A combination of improving economic data and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve has provided a kicker for the greenback over the past month, reversing the trajectory seen during the early part of the year.

US equities enjoyed another strong week with the S&P500 rising by +1.7% as it pushed further into record territory. The technology and healthcare sectors were the main drivers of last week’s gains[2]. In the UK, performance was mixed with the large cap FTSE100 declining slightly by -0.2% whilst the mid cap centric FTSE250 rose by +0.5%. European markets were also varied, in Germany the DAX30 posted a modest gain of +0.3% with the French CAC40 retreating by -1.1%. Meanwhile in Japan, the Nikkei 225 declined by -1.0% as concerns regarding rising COVID-19 cases dented investor sentiment.

Sovereign bond yields steadily retreated throughout the week. In the US, the 10-year declined by 10 basis points (bps) to 1.43% as it fell to its lowest level since early March. Across the Atlantic, the equivalent gilt yield declined by 8bps to 0.70% whilst on the Continent, the Eurozone 10-year index yield matched the 8bps gilt yield fall to close the week at -0.25%.

In the commodity markets, oil prices were steady as talks between OPEC and its allies failed to reach an agreement on higher production levels; Brent crude was largely flat versus the previous week, closing at $76.31. Elsewhere, gold prices were also largely benign with the precious metal rising by +0.2% to $1,784 an ounce. Concluding with copper, the metal continued to pull back from its recent record high as it posted a weekly decline of -0.4% which dropped it to $9,351 a tonne.


Week Ahead

Final PMI readings for June are amongst the standout figures due from the UK this week. Monthly GDP data from the ONS is also published alongside industrial and manufacturing production on Friday morning. In the US, the Federal Reserve publishes the minutes from its most recent monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. In terms of data, the Institute for Supply Management releases its PMI equivalent for the services sector on Tuesday.

Final PMI numbers are also released in the Eurozone this week with another solid month of growth expected to be reported. Other data to keep an eye on include retail sales for the Bloc as a whole as well as industrial production from Germany and Italy. Moving to Asia, consumer and producer inflation is released in China during the early hours of Friday morning. There are major macro figures due from Japan on this occasion. [3]


[1] US Bureau of Labour statistics - 02.07.21

[2] T. Rowe Price - 02.07.21

[3] Forex Factory - 04.07.21



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